GENERAL INFORMATION##NATIVE FOREST ISSUES I iII#III## UPDATES## GOOD PAPER ##PAPER IMPORTS # LINKS##PLANTATION ISSUES TEMPERATE RAINFOREST (COLLEGE CREEK) ## PAPERLINX SOLD ## CONTACT/SUPPORT # FOREST NETWORK ##WATER

Feb 09: Hancock plantations in the Strzelecki Ranges near Churchill go up in flames February 7 2009. 8000 hectares of young E.Nitens (Shining Gum) could have been lost in the fires. In a worse case scenario this could represent (if cut at 15 years of age and MAI of 20 -25) 2,400,000m3 and 3,000,000m3. (8 years and 10 year Hancock contract volumes)

Dec 08: In April 2007 Hancock Victorian Plantations (major suppliers of plantation fibre to Maryvale) started ripping up 1000 hectares of bluegum plantations which had failed to grow. Growth rates for Hancock's bluegum plantations are between 35% to 70% less than predicted, leaving the pulpmill with a gaping supply shortfall in the near future. Hancock has ~9,500ha of bluegum plantations which are planning to come on line in a couple of years. In a perfect world (MAI 22m3/ha/yr) these plantations if logged at 15 years of age would have supplied 3,135,000 m3 of timber enough to meet 10 years of Hancock's contract to Maryvale. Instead the bluegums will only see a volume of between 1,097,250m3 and 2,194,500m3 (less if cut at a younger age) a shortfall of between 940,500m3 (3.135 Hancock contract years) 2,037,750m3 (6.8 Hancock contract years). To make up this shortfall Hancock will wipe out what is left of their plantations/ reforestation in the Strzelecki Ranges. Any talk of Maryvale being solely reliant on plantation fibre by 2017 is highly unrealistic. In Jan/Feb 2009 fires ripped through 2700ha of Hancock plantations west of Boolara in Gippsland. Approximately 1000ha were bluegum plantations. One week later several thousand hectares of Hancock plantations (mainly hardwood) were incinerated in the Strzelecki Ranges. These fires could create a shortfall of between 2.4 million and 3 million cubic metres of hardwood pulplogs, putting a major dent into Maryvale pulp mills hardwood supply. Total Hancock Shortfall 3,340,500m3 - 5,037,750m3.

Macquarie & Great Southern Plantations

Macquarie and Midway are also unlikely to meet the predicted ~2000 hectares of new plantations required each year (5.5 ha per day) to meet demand for the new pulp mill. These news plantations were promised in 2005 as part of Maryvale's new pulp mill expansion plan. 2000 hectares of new plantations would be established each year until 2019. Macquarie were promising investors returns of 22 MAI, Great Southern 25 MAI. Plantings in the Stratford region in 2008 appear to have slowed down considerably with only 100ha established and new plantations at Ensay have also been knocked on the head. The growth rates of the new bluegums at Stratford are largely unknown at present. New plantings by Great Southern in Gippsland may not appear large enough to meet upcoming shortfall. Great Southern announced a ceasation of bluegum establishment in September 2008 due to poor growth rates.

Between 2005-08, Great Southern established just over 4000ha of hardwood plantations in Gippsland. At 25 MAI after 10 years this would have supplied ~1,000,000 cubic metres of woodchips. According to the Weekly Times Newspaper (Dec 08), Great Southern are recording Bluegum Growth rates of between 13.5 to 16 MAI. (54% to 64% of expected volume). This is closer to what would have been anticipated from between 2160ha and 2560ha of bluegums growing an 25MAI. Between 540,000 - 640,000 cubic metres of woodchips (460,000 - 360,000 cubic metres less than predicted).

Macquarie/Midway established ~3500ha in Gippsland between 2005-8. At an MAI of 22, after ten years these would have supplied 770,000 cubic metres of woodchips. If Macquarie Plantations are also growing at 54%-64% of expected volume this will total between 415,800 and 492,800 cubic metres (354,200 - 277,200 cubic metres less than predicted). Between the two companies new bluegum plantations established in Gippsland amounted to ~7500ha of new hardwood plantations in 4years (~1875ha per year). However if you extrapolate a growth rate of 13.5 to 16 MAI, this in actual terms for both companies it is closer to only 4050ha to 4800ha of bluegums growing at 25MAI. (Between ~1012.5ha per year - ~1200ha per year - Well short of the expected 2000ha/yr.) Total shortfall of woodchips by 2017 could be between 637,200 and 814,200 cubic metres.

Total possible 2017 shortall combining Hancock, Great Southern and Macquarie/Midway in Gippsland Bluegum Plantations: Currently between 3,977,700 cubic metres and 5,851,950 cubic metres. (That equates to a shortfall of between 15184 ha and 22899 ha of Bluegum Plantations if cut at 10 years age, with an MAI of 22).

(PaperlinX are planning to rely on 20,000 hectares of newly bluegum plantations for all their fine paper hardwood needs by 2017. This could see them exit the native forest industry but what are the consequences for Gippsland communities having to live next door to these plantations? Approximately 2000 hectares of new bluegum plantations need to be established in the region each year until 2017 for this project to be viable).

Sep 07: Plantation Objections from a Local Perspective